Draft prep: Potential busts for 2008-09

Last season, believe it or not, Kevin Garnett let a lot of Fantasy owners down. The Big Ticket was drafted third overall on average in most leagues because, well, he's The Big Ticket. Throughout his career, he's been a monster.

But Garnett's first year in Boston led to a noticeable drop in production. Playing alongside the likes of stars like Paul Pierce and Ray Allen for the first time in his career created a situation where he sacrificed statistical production for the good of a championship team.

We wouldn't say Garnett had a bad year by any means, but he ended up hurting a lot of Fantasy owners. He had averaged at least 21 points and 12 rebounds in his six previous seasons coming in, but wound up with just 18.8 points and 9.2 rebounds in 2007.

Last season, 15 forwards ended up totaling more Fantasy points than Garnett in standard scoring head-to-head leagues. That's just not what you want from the player you took third overall.

The lesson to learn here is to look for the little -- and sometimes big -- things that could negatively impact the statistical production of even the best players in the NBA. Avoid players in new situations where it's unclear that they'll be able to maintain or increase their level of production. Keep away from "one-hit wonders" who emerged out of the blue without much of an explanation.

Basically, if you can't figure out why they were so darn good last year, there's a good chance they won't be as good this year.

Also, consider offseason changes that happened around players you want to draft for your team. Have their been additions to the roster that could affect your player's minutes or shot attempts, even subtly? Is there a new coach in place that will change up style or rotations? All of these things influence statistical output.

With these things in mind, here's a list of our top players who have bust potential in 2008:

Gilbert Arenas just got paid and is coming off major knee surgery. Go for it. (Getty Images)

Gilbert Arenas, G, Washington: Last season, many Fantasy owners chose to ignore the warning signs with Dwyane Wade and paid for it. Wade was a young Fantasy stud whose production was just too enticing to pass up despite a bum knee and shoulder. Many a Fantasy season was wrecked by that kind of brashness and there are some of the same warning signs with Arenas. He's coming off major knee surgery and showed he was not fully recovered toward the end of last season when he returned and averaged just 14.6 points in April. Still, his potential to average 30 points along with five-plus assists, four-plus rebounds and over a steal per game make for quite the siren's song. But is he all the way back from his injury? It took Wade over a year to fully regain the explosiveness that earned him the nickname Flash. How long will it take the Hibachi to heat up?

Baron Davis, G, L.A. Clippers: He'll be drafted in the first round in most cases. But is he really worth the risk there? After all, up until last season he'd been an injury-riddled Fantasy headache in each of the previous five seasons. Last year, he put up career numbers, but -- surprise, surprise -- it came in a contract year for him. That's not to say that he can't have another good season. He certainly can. But consider that part of what made him such a Fantasy hero in 2007 was that his average draft position was 26th overall. That means he was going in the third round in most leagues. He'd be a fair value there again this year, but that's not going to happen after the numbers he put up last season. As a first rounder, his history of injuries and the fact he's no longer playing for the free-wheeling Warriors creates a risk factor that's not what you want in a first rounder. Let somebody else take that risk and play it safe with as close to a sure thing as you can find.

Marcus Camby/Chris Kaman, C, L.A. Clippers: Not to pick on the Clippers, but there's just too much uncertainty concerning these two players to put a lot of trust in them in Fantasy this season. Both had excellent years in 2007. Camby finished fourth overall among Fantasy centers in scoring (in standard head-to-head play) and Kaman was right up there all year long until he got hurt late in the year. But Kaman's breakout year came with Elton Brand injured for most of the season and Camby was the primary rebounder and shot blocker in Denver. Now, it's going to be interesting to see how the two co-exist in the L.A. frontcourt, but it's safe to say that Kaman won't be able to do 12.7 rebounds and Camby won't be able to do 13.3 again. One of these two players is going to blink, falling in value to that of a No. 2 center. Do you want to be stuck with that grenade?

Manu Ginobili, G, San Antonio: A career season in 2007 will likely boost his value in Fantasy to that of an early round pick. After all, the Argentine did finish 20th among all guards in Fantasy last season in total points scored. His previous career-high in scoring was 16.5. He averaged 19.5. His previous career high in assists was 3.9. He averaged 4.5. And so on, and so on. He had a terrific season, yes, but he also had a pretty good Olympic tournament for Argentina in the offseason in yet another offseason in which he didn't rest. He twisted his ankle, too. He had to have surgery to repair ligament damage on the same ankle the hobbled him late last season and during San Antonio's playoff run and may not be fully healthy by the time the start of the season rolls around. And, with his hard-nosed approach, it's unlikely that will be the only injury he has to deal with this season. So while his numbers last season elevated his value in Fantasy drafts to an early-round pick, selecting him as your No. 1 Fantasy guard would set you up for a letdown.

Corey Maggette, F, Golden State: He led the Clippers in scoring last season in a career year. But that came on a team that was without its biggest star for the majority of the season. The Clippers did not have many proven scoring options. The Warriors don't have that problem. Whether it's Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, Andris Biedrins or Kelenna Azubuike, the Warriors have plenty of players who can put the ball in the basket. Ellis will be hurt for the first month of the season and that should allow Maggette to get off to a decent start, but things will get a lot tighter around December once Ellis is back in the rotation. And Maggette will now be exposed to head coach Don Nelson's erratic rotation. He could be getting heavy minutes one night and not so much the next. Ask anybody who has owned Al Harrington the last two years how frustrating that gets.

Shawn Marion, F, Miami: He's been a Fantasy deity since 2000 and for good reason. He has done it all. He's been a great scorer, excellent rebounder, a crafty crook, a savvy swatter and a decent passer. He's drained the outside shot with regularity, made free throws and shot the ball at over a 48-percent clip over his career. But all of that came in Phoenix on a team that catered to him. Now in Miami, he's part of a team that is being built around Dwyane Wadeand now Michael Beasley. And it's Beasley's presence that could inhibit Marion's production the most. In many ways, Beasley is seen to be a young Marion and he also plays the same position, which could force Marion to small forward. With Beasley and Udonis Haslem around, the rebounds should drop this season for The Matrix. Marion, who has been a first-rounder for years, saw 30 forwards score more Fantasy points than him in 2007. The signs don't point to a resurgence in 2008.

Andre Miller, G, Philadelphia: He changed his game for the good of the team, shifting from passer to scorer for the Sixers last fall. But with Elton Brand now in town and Andre Iguodala now one of the premiere players in the league, he won't be relied upon quite as heavily as a scorer. That could mean a return to his pre-2007 stats. In 2006, he averaged 13.4 points, 7.8 assists and 4.4 rebounds. Obviously, those numbers are more than suitable for Fantasy owners, but they'll be looking for more coming off last season.

Steve Nash, G, Phoenix: After averaging over 18 points per game in each of his previous two seasons, Nash saw his scoring numbers decline in 2007. He averaged 16.9 points, but still averaged over 11 assists for the third time in four seasons. The question surrounding his Fantasy value this fall concerns the loss of head coach Mike D'Antoni. Nash has averaged over 10 assists in each of the last four seasons, despite never averaging more than 8.8 in his eight previous years in the NBA. The four years all came under the tutelage of D'Antoni. There is definitely the potential for a letdown season, but Nash will be sought after in the first or second round of most Fantasy leagues anyway.

Hedo Turkoglu, F, Orlando: There was no better value in Fantasy last season than Turkoglu. His average draft position was 117th overall, yet he finished 22nd overall in total Fantasy points scored. He caught everybody by surprise, but rest assured that won't happen again this fall. The 19-5-5 line he averaged last season will have him going in the first few rounds come Draft Day and it may be a stretch to expect such numbers from him again. Unfortunately, the odds are higher for him to fall short of that production than for him to exceed his draft value. He's no sure thing to repeat, considering the team added Mickael Pietrus this offseason. Not to mention that he suddenly broke out at 29 years old under the right conditions. But one things for certain, he won't out-produce his value.

source: By Sergio Gonzalez